The reference class

This is what luck looks like.

Every deterministic rule that can be cut from a record — by sport, market, confidence band, line range — scored and plotted together rather than ranked. Run enough rules and some come out excellent by chance alone. The cloud is what that chance looks like, and it is the only way to tell whether a rule chosen in advance sits genuinely out at the edge or merely somewhere in the crowd.

Population: the historical replay — a reference class needs volume, and a few hundred picks split across thousands of rules is variance rather than shape. Live and replay are never blended into one figure.

Picks (log) × ROI · every rule, none excludedDrag to filter the table

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10,776of 10,776 strategies match

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1–100 of 10,776 · page 1 of 108

#	Rule	Sports
1	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	81	93.8%	2233.0%	1817.9%	+1808.70u	0.00u
2	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	58	94.1%	2308.2%	1777.1%	+1338.76u	+2.40u
3	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	58	94.1%	2297.9%	1765.3%	+1332.76u	+2.40u
4	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	85	89.4%	2123.2%	1713.7%	+1804.70u	+2.00u
5	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	86	91.8%	2102.2%	1695.5%	+1807.86u	+1.40u
6	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	60	76.7%	2211.0%	1681.4%	+1326.60u	+14.00u
7	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	60	76.7%	2201.0%	1670.1%	+1320.60u	+14.00u
8	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	91	90.1%	2045.8%	1652.1%	+1861.70u	+1.00u
9	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	67	95.5%	2064.9%	1637.0%	+1383.50u	0.00u
10	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	62	74.2%	2136.4%	1613.9%	+1324.60u	+14.00u
11	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	68	94.1%	2033.1%	1606.8%	+1382.50u	+1.00u
12	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	62	74.2%	2126.8%	1603.1%	+1318.60u	+14.00u
13	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	95	86.3%	1955.5%	1568.5%	+1857.70u	+2.00u
14	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	62	88.5%	2080.1%	1559.3%	+1289.64u	+2.05u
15	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	70	91.4%	1972.1%	1549.5%	+1380.50u	+2.00u
16	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	62	88.5%	2070.4%	1548.5%	+1283.64u	+2.05u
17	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, underdogs only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	65	76.7%	2040.9%	1531.3%	+1326.60u	+14.00u
18	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 0%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	65	76.7%	2031.7%	1521.1%	+1320.60u	+14.00u
19	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	50	90.0%	2080.7%	1517.4%	+1040.37u	+2.66u
20	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	50	90.0%	2068.7%	1503.9%	+1034.37u	+2.66u
21	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	51	68.6%	2095.3%	1495.8%	+1068.60u	+14.00u
22	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	102	88.4%	1824.4%	1452.0%	+1860.86u	+2.40u
23	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	53	71.4%	2020.0%	1434.5%	+1070.60u	+14.00u
24	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 75%, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	59	96.6%	1846.8%	1433.0%	+1089.60u	0.00u
25	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	51	86.0%	2026.7%	1430.0%	+1033.64u	+2.05u
26	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	102	86.1%	1769.0%	1394.7%	+1804.34u	+2.05u
27	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	73	87.7%	1831.8%	1358.0%	+1337.24u	+2.05u
28	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	73	87.7%	1823.6%	1349.2%	+1331.24u	+2.05u
29	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, underdogs only, home only, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	111	78.4%	1674.1%	1319.2%	+1858.20u	+14.00u
30	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	81	88.9%	1704.1%	1310.0%	+1380.37u	+2.66u
31	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	58	78.4%	1883.7%	1291.0%	+1092.56u	+2.40u
32	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	115	75.6%	1612.3%	1264.9%	+1854.20u	+14.00u
33	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, underdogs only, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	116	78.4%	1601.9%	1257.0%	+1858.20u	+14.00u
34	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	119	83.8%	1560.8%	1221.7%	+1857.34u	+2.05u
35	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	62	85.2%	1743.9%	1218.4%	+1081.24u	+2.05u
36	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 75%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	68	94.1%	1602.7%	1213.8%	+1089.84u	+1.66u
37	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	79	62.0%	1667.1%	1211.3%	+1317.00u	+25.10u
38	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	79	62.0%	1659.5%	1203.3%	+1311.00u	+25.10u
39	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, underdogs only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	62	61.3%	1721.0%	1190.2%	+1067.00u	+19.10u
40	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	62	61.3%	1721.0%	1190.2%	+1067.00u	+19.10u
41	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	81	60.5%	1623.5%	1174.9%	+1315.00u	+25.10u
42	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, underdogs only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	60	60.0%	1760.0%	1169.9%	+1056.00u	+14.00u
43	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	81	60.5%	1616.0%	1167.2%	+1309.00u	+25.10u
44	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	62	77.0%	1714.4%	1153.1%	+1062.94u	+2.05u
45	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	64	59.4%	1664.1%	1144.0%	+1065.00u	+19.10u
46	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	64	59.4%	1664.1%	1144.0%	+1065.00u	+19.10u
47	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	86	75.0%	1541.6%	1114.0%	+1325.76u	+15.40u
48	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	62	54.8%	1687.4%	1108.6%	+1046.20u	+14.00u
49	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	86	75.0%	1534.6%	1106.8%	+1319.76u	+15.40u
50	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	mlb	50	82.8%	1795.0%	1102.9%	+897.52u	+2.00u
51	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	137	77.4%	1355.7%	1100.1%	+1857.36u	+15.40u
52	In MLB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 2%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	65	74.1%	1682.5%	1089.5%	+1093.64u	+3.00u
53	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	50	82.0%	1695.7%	1088.0%	+847.87u	+2.66u
54	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 10%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	51	54.9%	1729.4%	1080.9%	+882.00u	+14.00u
55	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	65	60.0%	1624.6%	1068.5%	+1056.00u	+14.00u
56	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	51	72.0%	1689.1%	1050.7%	+861.44u	+2.05u
57	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 0%, underdogs only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	53	60.4%	1675.9%	1048.6%	+888.20u	+13.00u
58	In MLB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 2%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	mlb	64	73.7%	1630.7%	1037.5%	+1043.64u	+3.00u
59	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	73	69.8%	1465.4%	994.1%	+1069.76u	+15.40u
60	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	73	69.8%	1465.4%	994.1%	+1069.76u	+15.40u
61	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	73	72.3%	1482.0%	978.5%	+1081.84u	+2.05u
62	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	154	74.8%	1203.8%	969.3%	+1853.84u	+13.92u
63	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	98	60.5%	1341.8%	952.3%	+1315.00u	+25.60u
64	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	98	63.6%	1339.8%	950.8%	+1313.00u	+21.60u
65	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	101	73.1%	1311.1%	932.1%	+1324.24u	+13.92u
66	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	77	59.4%	1383.1%	929.4%	+1065.00u	+19.60u
67	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	101	73.1%	1305.2%	926.1%	+1318.24u	+13.92u
68	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	77	60.0%	1379.3%	925.2%	+1062.10u	+22.50u
69	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	62	66.7%	1432.8%	879.3%	+888.34u	+3.00u
70	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, underdogs only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	62	54.8%	1426.0%	871.3%	+884.10u	+19.10u
71	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, underdogs only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	177	65.5%	1060.5%	851.3%	+1877.16u	+34.10u
72	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	64	51.6%	1374.2%	832.4%	+879.46u	+19.10u
73	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab	181	64.1%	1034.9%	829.2%	+1873.16u	+34.10u
74	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, underdogs only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	79	51.9%	1305.4%	825.0%	+1031.28u	+25.10u
75	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	88	68.7%	1213.9%	806.7%	+1068.24u	+13.92u
76	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	88	68.7%	1213.9%	806.7%	+1068.24u	+13.92u
77	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	115	60.5%	1143.5%	801.1%	+1315.00u	+25.60u
78	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	115	63.6%	1141.7%	799.8%	+1313.00u	+21.60u
79	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 10%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	81	48.1%	1264.2%	792.5%	+1024.00u	+25.10u
80	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	86	59.4%	1226.9%	782.4%	+1055.16u	+15.40u
81	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	118	60.0%	1113.7%	778.5%	+1314.16u	+27.00u
82	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	118	63.7%	1112.9%	778.2%	+1313.16u	+22.00u
83	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	120	60.5%	1095.8%	765.4%	+1315.00u	+25.60u
84	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	92	59.4%	1157.6%	764.5%	+1065.00u	+19.60u
85	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	120	63.6%	1094.2%	764.2%	+1313.00u	+21.60u
86	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	92	60.0%	1154.5%	761.0%	+1062.10u	+22.50u
87	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	93	58.8%	1144.3%	754.6%	+1064.16u	+21.00u
88	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	93	59.7%	1140.6%	750.5%	+1060.76u	+24.40u
89	In every sport, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 10%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab, mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaaf	211	86.7%	939.2%	748.6%	+1981.69u	+6.26u
90	In MLB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	mlb	69	73.5%	1282.7%	747.6%	+885.04u	+3.00u
91	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	94	59.4%	1133.0%	746.9%	+1065.00u	+19.60u
92	In MLB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	mlb	69	72.1%	1281.2%	746.0%	+884.02u	+3.00u
93	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	94	60.0%	1129.9%	743.5%	+1062.10u	+22.50u
94	In NCAAB, underdogs only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	132	60.5%	996.2%	742.8%	+1315.00u	+25.60u
95	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 0%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	132	63.6%	994.7%	741.6%	+1313.00u	+21.60u
96	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	132	60.2%	994.2%	740.6%	+1312.35u	+25.81u
97	In NCAAB, edge ≥ 5%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	ncaab	132	63.4%	992.3%	739.0%	+1309.84u	+22.32u
98	In every sport, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 10%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	ncaab, mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaaf	270	86.3%	888.9%	734.3%	+2400.03u	+5.30u
99	In MLB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	70	72.5%	1262.9%	734.2%	+884.04u	+3.00u
100	In NCAAB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per day.	ncaab	73	60.8%	1216.9%	733.1%	+888.36u	+13.40u

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