Strategy · all-conf55-edge5-favorite-home-byimplied_prob-top3persport

In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 5%, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.

Sports: MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAAB, NCAAF · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": "all"
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 3,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 3
Days active: 3
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 1 / 1 / 0
Win rate: 50.0%
ROI: -11.8%
Wilson-LB ROI: -217.8%
Units: -0.35u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: -0.35u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 1
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-22 → 2026-05-31

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 175
Days active: 117
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 64 / 29 / 0
Win rate: 68.8%
ROI: 565.4%
Wilson-LB ROI: 366.7%
Units: +989.54u
Max drawdown: +6.50u
Best 30d: +398.36u
Worst 30d: -6.10u
Longest win streak: 6
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2025-04-04 → 2026-05-18

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": "all"
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 3,
    "mode": "top_n_per_sport"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.05,
    "confidence_min": 0.55
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-05-31	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-155	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-29	nba	in ledger	SpursThunder @ Spurs	-155	win	+0.65u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	AngelsAthletics @ Angels	-110	pending	0.00u

3 most-recent picks shown.