Strategy · all-conf60-edge10-favorite-top10pct

In every sport, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 10%, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAAB, NCAAF · Registry version 1 · Low sample

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": "all"
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n_per_sport"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": "all"
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 32
Days active: 32
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 20 / 12 / 0
Win rate: 62.5%
ROI: 612.4%
Wilson-LB ROI: 4.0%
Units: +195.96u
Max drawdown: +2.88u
Best 30d: +50.00u
Worst 30d: -2.52u
Longest win streak: 4
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2025-04-08 → 2026-05-02

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "confidence",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": "all"
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "edge_min": 0.1,
    "confidence_min": 0.6
  }
}

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