Strategy · all-conf65-edge2-favorite-home-byedge-all

In every sport, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 2%, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAAB, NCAAF · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": "all"
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": "all"
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 5
Days active: 5
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 3 / 2 / 0
Win rate: 60.0%
ROI: -6.9%
Wilson-LB ROI: -112.7%
Units: -0.35u
Max drawdown: +2.00u
Best 30d: -0.35u
Worst 30d: -2.00u
Longest win streak: 3
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-01

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 490
Days active: 159
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 218 / 73 / 0
Win rate: 74.9%
ROI: 93.6%
Wilson-LB ROI: 43.5%
Units: +458.54u
Max drawdown: +8.69u
Best 30d: +198.81u
Worst 30d: -7.64u
Longest win streak: 8
Longest loss streak: 4
Range: 2025-04-08 → 2026-05-18

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "edge",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": "all"
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.02,
    "confidence_min": 0.65
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-31	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-155	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-29	nba	in ledger	SpursThunder @ Spurs	-155	win	+0.65u
2026-05-27	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u

5 most-recent picks shown.