Strategy · all-conf65-favorite-byimplied_prob-all

In every sport, confidence ≥ 65%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAAB, NCAAF · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": "all"
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": "all"
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 26
Days active: 13
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 18 / 5 / 0
Win rate: 78.3%
ROI: 12.2%
Wilson-LB ROI: -11.3%
Units: +3.17u
Max drawdown: +3.00u
Best 30d: +3.17u
Worst 30d: -3.00u
Longest win streak: 6
Longest loss streak: 3
Range: 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-01

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 8,546
Days active: 332
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 2458 / 915 / 0
Win rate: 72.9%
ROI: 6.5%
Wilson-LB ROI: 3.1%
Units: +557.05u
Max drawdown: +75.68u
Best 30d: +255.98u
Worst 30d: -42.98u
Longest win streak: 22
Longest loss streak: 8
Range: 2025-04-08 → 2026-05-20

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": "all"
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "confidence_min": 0.65
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-31	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-155	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-30	nhl	in ledger	HurricanesCanadiens @ Hurricanes	-238	win	+0.42u
2026-05-30	nhl	in ledger	HurricanesCanadiens @ Hurricanes	-238	win	+0.42u
2026-05-29	nba	in ledger	SpursThunder @ Spurs	-155	win	+0.65u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-27	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-26	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-325	win	+0.31u
2026-05-26	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-325	win	+0.31u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	BrewersCardinals @ Brewers	-225	win	+0.44u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	BrewersCardinals @ Brewers	-225	win	+0.44u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-23	nhl	in ledger	HurricanesCanadiens @ Hurricanes	-205	win	+0.49u
2026-05-23	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-22	nba	in ledger	KnicksCavaliers @ Knicks	-230	win	+0.43u
2026-05-22	nba	in ledger	KnicksCavaliers @ Knicks	-230	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-219	win	+0.46u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-219	win	+0.46u
2026-05-22	nhl	in ledger	HurricanesCanadiens @ Hurricanes	-205	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u
2026-05-21	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-238	win	+0.42u
2026-05-21	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-238	win	+0.42u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	BravesBraves @ Marlins	-205	win	+0.49u

26 most-recent picks shown.