Strategy · mlb-conf55-edge0-home-byimplied_prob-top10pct

In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 0%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 9
Days active: 9
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 2 / 3 / 0
Win rate: 40.0%
ROI: -22.6%
Wilson-LB ROI: -69.7%
Units: -2.04u
Max drawdown: +2.50u
Best 30d: -1.00u
Worst 30d: -2.50u
Longest win streak: 1
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-21 → 2026-06-03

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 167
Days active: 167
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 66 / 25 / 0
Win rate: 72.5%
ROI: 23.4%
Wilson-LB ROI: -26.2%
Units: +39.08u
Max drawdown: +19.17u
Best 30d: +51.39u
Worst 30d: -9.82u
Longest win streak: 5
Longest loss streak: 3
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2026-05-20

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0,
    "confidence_min": 0.55
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-03	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRockies @ Angels	-162	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesPadres @ Phillies	-136	pending	0.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	MetsReds @ Mets	-120	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-23	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-219	win	+0.46u
2026-05-21	mlb	in ledger	TigersGuardians @ Tigers	-117	pending	0.00u

9 most-recent picks shown.