Strategy · mlb-conf55-home-byimplied_prob-all

In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 64
Days active: 12
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 10 / 7 / 0
Win rate: 58.8%
ROI: -4.0%
Wilson-LB ROI: -13.4%
Units: -2.55u
Max drawdown: +4.47u
Best 30d: -1.00u
Worst 30d: -4.47u
Longest win streak: 4
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-03

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 1,882
Days active: 219
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 488 / 277 / 0
Win rate: 63.8%
ROI: 57.7%
Wilson-LB ROI: 35.9%
Units: +1085.34u
Max drawdown: +34.85u
Best 30d: +575.57u
Worst 30d: -15.48u
Longest win streak: 8
Longest loss streak: 6
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2026-05-20

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "venue": "home",
    "confidence_min": 0.55
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-03	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRockies @ Angels	-162	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-03	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRockies @ Angels	-162	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	YankeesGuardians @ Yankees	-240	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	YankeesGuardians @ Yankees	-240	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRockies @ Angels	-219	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRockies @ Angels	-219	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	BrewersGiants @ Brewers	-207	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesPadres @ Phillies	-136	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesPadres @ Phillies	-136	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	BravesBlue Jays @ Braves	-131	pending	0.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RaysTigers @ Rays	-175	pending	0.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	TwinsWhite Sox @ Twins	-168	pending	0.00u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	GuardiansNationals @ Guardians	-193	win	+0.52u
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	GuardiansNationals @ Guardians	-193	pending	0.00u
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	Blue JaysMarlins @ Blue Jays	-162	pending	0.00u
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	Blue JaysMarlins @ Blue Jays	-162	pending	0.00u
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	MetsReds @ Mets	-120	pending	0.00u
2026-05-26	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-325	win	+0.31u
2026-05-26	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-325	win	+0.31u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	BrewersCardinals @ Brewers	-225	win	+0.44u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	BrewersCardinals @ Brewers	-225	win	+0.44u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	GuardiansNationals @ Guardians	-180	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	GuardiansNationals @ Guardians	-180	pending	0.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	MetsReds @ Mets	-163	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-198	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	CubsAstros @ Cubs	-179	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	CubsAstros @ Cubs	-179	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-170	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	Blue JaysPirates @ Blue Jays	-168	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	Blue JaysPirates @ Blue Jays	-168	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	Red SoxTwins @ Red Sox	-157	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	Red SoxTwins @ Red Sox	-157	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	YankeesRays @ Yankees	-131	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	YankeesRays @ Yankees	-131	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRangers @ Angels	-126	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRangers @ Angels	-126	pending	0.00u
2026-05-23	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	pending	0.00u
2026-05-23	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-23	mlb	in ledger	GiantsWhite Sox @ Giants	-107	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-219	win	+0.46u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-219	win	+0.46u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	Blue JaysPirates @ Blue Jays	-167	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	CubsAstros @ Cubs	-144	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	OriolesTigers @ Orioles	-131	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	OriolesTigers @ Orioles	-131	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	AngelsAthletics @ Angels	-110	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	AngelsAthletics @ Angels	-110	pending	0.00u
2026-05-21	mlb	in ledger	YankeesBlue Jays @ Yankees	-175	pending	0.00u
2026-05-21	mlb	in ledger	YankeesBlue Jays @ Yankees	-175	pending	0.00u
2026-05-21	mlb	in ledger	TigersGuardians @ Tigers	-117	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	YankeesBlue Jays @ Yankees	-175	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	YankeesBlue Jays @ Yankees	-175	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	TwinsAstros @ Twins	-155	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	TwinsAstros @ Twins	-155	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesReds @ Phillies	-144	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesReds @ Phillies	-144	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	CardinalsPirates @ Cardinals	-120	pending	0.00u

64 most-recent picks shown.