Strategy · mlb-conf60-edge0-favorite-byimplied_prob-top10pct

In MLB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 0%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 10
Days active: 10
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 5 / 3 / 0
Win rate: 62.5%
ROI: 0.6%
Wilson-LB ROI: -52.5%
Units: +0.06u
Max drawdown: +2.00u
Best 30d: +0.06u
Worst 30d: -2.00u
Longest win streak: 3
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-03

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 124
Days active: 124
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 74 / 38 / 0
Win rate: 66.1%
ROI: 637.9%
Wilson-LB ROI: 388.7%
Units: +790.98u
Max drawdown: +5.16u
Best 30d: +349.01u
Worst 30d: -5.16u
Longest win streak: 12
Longest loss streak: 3
Range: 2025-03-31 → 2026-05-19

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "edge_min": 0,
    "confidence_min": 0.6
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-03	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRockies @ Angels	-162	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	BravesBlue Jays @ Braves	-131	pending	0.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesPhillies @ Padres	-126	win	+0.79u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-23	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-219	win	+0.46u
2026-05-21	mlb	in ledger	DodgersDodgers @ Padres	-175	win	+0.57u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Rockies	-136	win	+0.73u

10 most-recent picks shown.