Strategy · mlb-conf60-edge2-byimplied_prob-all

In MLB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 2%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 9
Days active: 8
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 3 / 3 / 0
Win rate: 50.0%
ROI: -10.8%
Wilson-LB ROI: -67.2%
Units: -0.97u
Max drawdown: +2.21u
Best 30d: -0.97u
Worst 30d: -2.21u
Longest win streak: 1
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-03

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 460
Days active: 158
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 266 / 164 / 0
Win rate: 61.9%
ROI: 235.7%
Wilson-LB ROI: 149.7%
Units: +1084.09u
Max drawdown: +15.86u
Best 30d: +468.43u
Worst 30d: -11.67u
Longest win streak: 10
Longest loss streak: 8
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2026-05-20

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "edge_min": 0.02,
    "confidence_min": 0.6
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-03	mlb	in ledger	AngelsRockies @ Angels	-162	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	BravesBlue Jays @ Braves	-131	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Cardinals	-115	pending	0.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesPhillies @ Padres	-126	win	+0.79u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	Red SoxTwins @ Red Sox	-157	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u
2026-05-21	mlb	in ledger	AthleticsAthletics @ Angels	-126	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Rockies	-136	win	+0.73u

9 most-recent picks shown.