Strategy · mlb-conf60-edge5-byimplied_prob-top5

In MLB, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 5 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 3
Days active: 3
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 2 / 0 / 0
Win rate: 100.0%
ROI: 51.0%
Wilson-LB ROI: -58.9%
Units: +1.53u
Max drawdown: 0.00u
Best 30d: +1.53u
Worst 30d: 0.00u
Longest win streak: 2
Longest loss streak: 0
Range: 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-02

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 184
Days active: 111
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 112 / 65 / 0
Win rate: 63.3%
ROI: 495.2%
Wilson-LB ROI: 309.2%
Units: +911.25u
Max drawdown: +9.07u
Best 30d: +390.41u
Worst 30d: -7.05u
Longest win streak: 11
Longest loss streak: 5
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2026-05-19

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 5,
    "mode": "top_n"
  },
  "filters": {
    "edge_min": 0.05,
    "confidence_min": 0.6
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Cardinals	-115	pending	0.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesPhillies @ Padres	-126	win	+0.79u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Rockies	-136	win	+0.73u

3 most-recent picks shown.