Strategy · mlb-conf65-edge0-favorite-home-top10pct

In MLB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 0%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1 · Low sample

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 5
Days active: 5
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 2 / 2 / 0
Win rate: 50.0%
ROI: -19.8%
Wilson-LB ROI: -114.2%
Units: -0.99u
Max drawdown: +1.50u
Best 30d: -0.49u
Worst 30d: -1.50u
Longest win streak: 1
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-01

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 39
Days active: 39
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 31 / 8 / 0
Win rate: 79.5%
ROI: 773.3%
Wilson-LB ROI: 179.3%
Units: +301.58u
Max drawdown: +3.59u
Best 30d: +150.25u
Worst 30d: -1.59u
Longest win streak: 21
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2025-04-08 → 2026-05-15

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "confidence",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0,
    "confidence_min": 0.65
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-23	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u

5 most-recent picks shown.