Strategy · mlb-conf65-edge0-underdog-home-byimplied_prob-all

In MLB, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 0%, underdogs only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 5 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 83
Days active: 50
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 55 / 28 / 0
Win rate: 66.3%
ROI: -32.4%
Wilson-LB ROI: -43.0%
Units: -26.90u
Max drawdown: +25.94u
Best 30d: +0.12u
Worst 30d: -12.56u
Longest win streak: 8
Longest loss streak: 3
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2025-09-15

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "underdog",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0,
    "confidence_min": 0.65
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

No picks yet.

0 most-recent picks shown.