Strategy · mlb-conf65-home-byimplied_prob-all

In MLB, confidence ≥ 65%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 14
Days active: 7
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 9 / 3 / 0
Win rate: 75.0%
ROI: 6.6%
Wilson-LB ROI: -28.2%
Units: +0.93u
Max drawdown: +2.00u
Best 30d: +0.93u
Worst 30d: -2.00u
Longest win streak: 5
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-01

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 366
Days active: 138
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 249 / 113 / 0
Win rate: 68.8%
ROI: 96.6%
Wilson-LB ROI: 33.3%
Units: +353.58u
Max drawdown: +25.42u
Best 30d: +201.38u
Worst 30d: -11.80u
Longest win streak: 18
Longest loss streak: 8
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2026-05-15

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "venue": "home",
    "confidence_min": 0.65
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-28	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-424	pending	0.00u
2026-05-26	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-325	win	+0.31u
2026-05-26	mlb	in ledger	DodgersRockies @ Dodgers	-325	win	+0.31u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	BrewersCardinals @ Brewers	-225	win	+0.44u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	BrewersCardinals @ Brewers	-225	win	+0.44u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-23	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-219	win	+0.46u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	BravesNationals @ Braves	-219	win	+0.46u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u

14 most-recent picks shown.