Strategy · mlb-conf70-edge2-favorite-home-byimplied_prob-top5

In MLB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 2%, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1 · Low sample

This rule is equivalent to 8 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 3,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 3,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 3,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 2
Days active: 2
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 1 / 1 / 0
Win rate: 50.0%
ROI: -24.9%
Wilson-LB ROI: -979.7%
Units: -0.50u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: -0.50u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 1
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-01

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 24
Days active: 18
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 21 / 3 / 0
Win rate: 87.5%
ROI: 640.0%
Wilson-LB ROI: -72.5%
Units: +153.61u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: +101.81u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 15
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2025-04-08 → 2026-04-01

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 5,
    "mode": "top_n"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.02,
    "confidence_min": 0.7
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	RedsRoyals @ Reds	-220	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	DiamondbacksRockies @ Diamondbacks	-199	win	+0.50u

2 most-recent picks shown.