Strategy · mlb-conf70-edge5-byimplied_prob-top5

In MLB, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1 · Low sample

This rule is equivalent to 8 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 3,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 3,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 3,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 46
Days active: 36
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 32 / 14 / 0
Win rate: 69.6%
ROI: 305.2%
Wilson-LB ROI: -68.7%
Units: +140.41u
Max drawdown: +8.22u
Best 30d: +98.48u
Worst 30d: -6.86u
Longest win streak: 6
Longest loss streak: 5
Range: 2025-03-29 → 2026-05-06

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 5,
    "mode": "top_n"
  },
  "filters": {
    "edge_min": 0.05,
    "confidence_min": 0.7
  }
}

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