Strategy · mlb-edge5-byimplied_prob-top10pct

In MLB, edge ≥ 5%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.05
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 9
Days active: 9
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 2 / 1 / 0
Win rate: 66.7%
ROI: 5.9%
Wilson-LB ROI: -33.9%
Units: +0.53u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: +0.53u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 1
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-03

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 148
Days active: 148
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 62 / 37 / 0
Win rate: 62.6%
ROI: 156.6%
Wilson-LB ROI: 33.5%
Units: +231.83u
Max drawdown: +10.24u
Best 30d: +144.27u
Worst 30d: -5.94u
Longest win streak: 9
Longest loss streak: 4
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2026-05-19

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "edge_min": 0.05
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-03	mlb	in ledger	MetsMets @ Mariners	+119	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Cardinals	-115	pending	0.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	GiantsGiants @ Brewers	+135	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	RoyalsYankees @ Royals	+130	pending	0.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesPhillies @ Padres	-126	win	+0.79u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	White SoxWhite Sox @ Giants	-110	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	AngelsAthletics @ Angels	-110	pending	0.00u
2026-05-21	mlb	in ledger	MetsMets @ Nationals	-114	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Rockies	-136	win	+0.73u

9 most-recent picks shown.