Strategy · mlb-edge5-favorite-top1

In MLB, edge ≥ 5%, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take the top pick per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "pct": 0.1,
      "mode": "top_pct"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "edge_min": 0.05
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 6
Days active: 6
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 2 / 0 / 0
Win rate: 100.0%
ROI: 25.5%
Wilson-LB ROI: -16.0%
Units: +1.53u
Max drawdown: 0.00u
Best 30d: +1.53u
Worst 30d: 0.00u
Longest win streak: 1
Longest loss streak: 0
Range: 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-02

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 109
Days active: 109
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 45 / 27 / 0
Win rate: 62.5%
ROI: 726.6%
Wilson-LB ROI: 388.0%
Units: +792.01u
Max drawdown: +6.35u
Best 30d: +347.36u
Worst 30d: -4.31u
Longest win streak: 4
Longest loss streak: 3
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2026-05-19

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "confidence",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 1,
    "mode": "top_n"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "edge_min": 0.05
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Cardinals	-115	pending	0.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	PhilliesPhillies @ Padres	-126	win	+0.79u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	White SoxWhite Sox @ Giants	-110	pending	0.00u
2026-05-22	mlb	in ledger	AngelsAthletics @ Angels	-110	pending	0.00u
2026-05-21	mlb	in ledger	MetsMets @ Nationals	-114	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	RangersRangers @ Rockies	-136	win	+0.73u

6 most-recent picks shown.