Strategy · mlb-edge5-underdog-home-top10pct

In MLB, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.05
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 3
Days active: 3
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 0 / 0 / 0
Win rate: —
ROI: 0.0%
Wilson-LB ROI: 0.0%
Units: 0.00u
Max drawdown: 0.00u
Best 30d: 0.00u
Worst 30d: 0.00u
Longest win streak: 0
Longest loss streak: 0
Range: 2026-05-24 → 2026-05-27

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 52
Days active: 52
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 21 / 12 / 0
Win rate: 63.6%
ROI: -22.3%
Wilson-LB ROI: -34.3%
Units: -11.58u
Max drawdown: +11.64u
Best 30d: +0.04u
Worst 30d: -4.82u
Longest win streak: 5
Longest loss streak: 4
Range: 2025-03-29 → 2026-05-17

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "confidence",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "underdog",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.05
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	RoyalsYankees @ Royals	+130	pending	0.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	RoyalsYankees @ Royals	+130	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	RoyalsMariners @ Royals	+119	pending	0.00u

3 most-recent picks shown.