Strategy · mlb-edge5-underdog-top10pct

In MLB, edge ≥ 5%, underdogs only, sort by confidence descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: MLB · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "mlb"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.05
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 7
Days active: 7
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 0 / 1 / 0
Win rate: 0.0%
ROI: -14.3%
Wilson-LB ROI: -49.2%
Units: -1.00u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: 0.00u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 0
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-03

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 101
Days active: 101
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 35 / 20 / 0
Win rate: 63.6%
ROI: -15.3%
Wilson-LB ROI: -24.8%
Units: -15.44u
Max drawdown: +17.40u
Best 30d: +2.92u
Worst 30d: -7.86u
Longest win streak: 6
Longest loss streak: 3
Range: 2025-03-27 → 2026-05-19

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "confidence",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "mlb"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "underdog",
    "edge_min": 0.05
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-06-03	mlb	in ledger	MetsMets @ Mariners	+119	pending	0.00u
2026-06-02	mlb	in ledger	MetsMets @ Mariners	+119	pending	0.00u
2026-06-01	mlb	in ledger	GiantsGiants @ Brewers	+135	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-27	mlb	in ledger	RoyalsYankees @ Royals	+130	pending	0.00u
2026-05-25	mlb	in ledger	RoyalsYankees @ Royals	+130	pending	0.00u
2026-05-24	mlb	in ledger	RoyalsMariners @ Royals	+119	pending	0.00u
2026-05-20	mlb	in ledger	White SoxWhite Sox @ Mariners	+123	pending	0.00u

7 most-recent picks shown.