Strategy · nba-conf55-underdog-byedge-top10pct

In NBA, confidence ≥ 55%, underdogs only, sort by edge descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: NBA · Registry version 1 · Low sample

This rule is equivalent to 7 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "pct": 0.1,
      "mode": "top_pct"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "pct": 0.1,
      "mode": "top_pct"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "pct": 0.1,
      "mode": "top_pct"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 1,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

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Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 20
Days active: 17
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 16 / 3 / 0
Win rate: 84.2%
ROI: 405.3%
Wilson-LB ROI: 252.9%
Units: +81.05u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: +82.05u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 7
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2025-11-09 → 2026-03-23

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "edge",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "nba"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "underdog",
    "confidence_min": 0.55
  }
}

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