Strategy · nba-conf60-edge0-home-byimplied_prob-top1

In NBA, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 0%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take the top pick per day.

Sports: NBA · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "pct": 0.1,
      "mode": "top_pct"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 5
Days active: 5
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 3 / 1 / 0
Win rate: 75.0%
ROI: 11.7%
Wilson-LB ROI: -71.4%
Units: +0.58u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: +0.58u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 2
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-21 → 2026-05-30

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 80
Days active: 76
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 30 / 7 / 0
Win rate: 81.1%
ROI: 45.3%
Wilson-LB ROI: 16.9%
Units: +36.22u
Max drawdown: +2.00u
Best 30d: +35.13u
Worst 30d: -2.00u
Longest win streak: 5
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2025-10-26 → 2026-05-18

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "nba"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 1,
    "mode": "top_n"
  },
  "filters": {
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0,
    "confidence_min": 0.6
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-05-30	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-155	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-28	nba	in ledger	SpursThunder @ Spurs	-155	win	+0.65u
2026-05-26	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-24	nba	in ledger	SpursThunder @ Spurs	-135	pending	0.00u
2026-05-21	nba	in ledger	KnicksCavaliers @ Knicks	-230	win	+0.43u

5 most-recent picks shown.