Strategy · nba-conf60-edge2-favorite-home-top1

In NBA, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 2%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take the top pick per day.

Sports: NBA · Registry version 1 · Low sample

This rule is equivalent to 1 other spelling

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "pct": 0.1,
      "mode": "top_pct"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Picks: 4
Days active: 4
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 2 / 1 / 0
Win rate: 66.7%
ROI: 3.8%
Wilson-LB ROI: -114.8%
Units: +0.15u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: +0.15u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 2
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2026-05-24 → 2026-05-30

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 31
Days active: 30
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 6 / 2 / 0
Win rate: 75.0%
ROI: 3.0%
Wilson-LB ROI: -9.5%
Units: +0.94u
Max drawdown: +1.00u
Best 30d: +1.74u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 3
Longest loss streak: 1
Range: 2025-10-26 → 2026-05-17

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "confidence",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "nba"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 1,
    "mode": "top_n"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.02,
    "confidence_min": 0.6
  }
}

Recent picks · newest first · ledger membership shown per pick

Date	Sport	Period	Pick	Odds	Outcome	Units
2026-05-30	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-155	loss	-1.00u
2026-05-28	nba	in ledger	SpursThunder @ Spurs	-155	win	+0.65u
2026-05-26	nba	in ledger	ThunderSpurs @ Thunder	-198	win	+0.51u
2026-05-24	nba	in ledger	SpursThunder @ Spurs	-135	pending	0.00u

4 most-recent picks shown.