Strategy · nba-conf65-edge2-underdog-home-top5

In NBA, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 2%, underdogs only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.

Sports: NBA · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 11 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nba"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "venue": "home",
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 55
Days active: 16
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 48 / 7 / 0
Win rate: 87.3%
ROI: 414.9%
Wilson-LB ROI: 338.2%
Units: +228.20u
Max drawdown: +2.00u
Best 30d: +228.20u
Worst 30d: +1.80u
Longest win streak: 17
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2025-11-09 → 2025-11-25

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "confidence",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "nba"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 5,
    "mode": "top_n"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "underdog",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.02,
    "confidence_min": 0.65
  }
}

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