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Strategy · nba-conf75-byimplied_prob-top10pct

In NBA, confidence ≥ 75%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 10% per day.

Sports: NBA · Registry version 1

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks
146
Days active
130
Wins / Losses / Pushes
14 / 4 / 0
Win rate
77.8%
ROI
4.3%
Wilson-LB ROI
-1.9%
Units
+6.27u
Max drawdown
+2.89u
Best 30d
+8.00u
Worst 30d
-2.75u
Longest win streak
2
Longest loss streak
1
Range
2025-10-25 → 2026-05-11

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "nba"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "mode": "top_pct"
  },
  "filters": {
    "confidence_min": 0.75
  }
}

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