Strategy · ncaaf-conf60-edge2-favorite-home-byimplied_prob-all

In NCAAF, confidence ≥ 60%, edge ≥ 2%, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: NCAAF · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.02,
      "confidence_min": 0.6
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 230
Days active: 46
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 91 / 24 / 0
Win rate: 79.1%
ROI: 4.8%
Wilson-LB ROI: 0.4%
Units: +11.09u
Max drawdown: +2.40u
Best 30d: +9.05u
Worst 30d: -1.00u
Longest win streak: 10
Longest loss streak: 3
Range: 2025-08-29 → 2026-01-10

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "ncaaf"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.02,
    "confidence_min": 0.6
  }
}

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