Strategy · ncaaf-conf65-edge5-home-byimplied_prob-all

In NCAAF, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: NCAAF · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.65
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 85
Days active: 29
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 54 / 13 / 0
Win rate: 80.6%
ROI: 159.0%
Wilson-LB ROI: -11.0%
Units: +135.15u
Max drawdown: +2.66u
Best 30d: +129.14u
Worst 30d: -1.50u
Longest win streak: 9
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2025-08-28 → 2026-01-02

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "ncaaf"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.05,
    "confidence_min": 0.65
  }
}

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