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Strategy · ncaaf-conf70-edge10-favorite-home-byimplied_prob-all
In NCAAF, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 10%, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.
Sports: NCAAF · Registry version 1 · Low sample
This rule is equivalent to 71 other spellings
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"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.75
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"mode": "all_eligible"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 5,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.75
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 5,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.75
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "implied_prob",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 5,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 3,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.75
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"mode": "all_eligible"
},
"filters": {
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.75
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 5,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"mode": "all_eligible"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 3,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"mode": "all_eligible"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.75
}
}
]Live vs backtest
Backtest
Reconstructed from prior predictions
- Picks
- 13
- Days active
- 12
- Wins / Losses / Pushes
- 8 / 5 / 0
- Win rate
- 61.5%
- ROI
- -13.6%
- Wilson-LB ROI
- -56.9%
- Units
- -1.77u
- Max drawdown
- +3.00u
- Best 30d
- +1.70u
- Worst 30d
- -2.30u
- Longest win streak
- 5
- Longest loss streak
- 3
- Range
- 2025-09-06 → 2025-12-28
The rule, in JSON
You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.
{
"sort": {
"by": "implied_prob",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"ncaaf"
]
},
"select": {
"mode": "all_eligible"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.1,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
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