Strategy · ncaaf-conf70-edge5-favorite-home-all

In NCAAF, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 5%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: NCAAF · Registry version 1

This rule is equivalent to 2 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0.05,
      "confidence_min": 0.7
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 66
Days active: 22
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 47 / 13 / 0
Win rate: 78.3%
ROI: 7.4%
Wilson-LB ROI: -6.1%
Units: +4.91u
Max drawdown: +2.98u
Best 30d: +6.33u
Worst 30d: -2.09u
Longest win streak: 9
Longest loss streak: 2
Range: 2025-08-31 → 2026-01-02

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "confidence",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "ncaaf"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0.05,
    "confidence_min": 0.7
  }
}

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