Strategy · ncaaf-edge10-underdog-byimplied_prob-all

In NCAAF, edge ≥ 10%, underdogs only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.

Sports: NCAAF · Registry version 1 · Low sample

This rule is equivalent to 11 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "ncaaf"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "underdog",
      "edge_min": 0.1,
      "confidence_min": 0.55
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 24
Days active: 14
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 10 / 0 / 0
Win rate: 100.0%
ROI: 977.3%
Wilson-LB ROI: 182.7%
Units: +234.55u
Max drawdown: 0.00u
Best 30d: +229.45u
Worst 30d: 0.00u
Longest win streak: 8
Longest loss streak: 0
Range: 2025-08-28 → 2025-12-24

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "implied_prob",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "ncaaf"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "mode": "all_eligible"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "underdog",
    "edge_min": 0.1
  }
}

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