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Strategy · nfl-conf65-edge5-favorite-home-byedge-top10pct
In NFL, confidence ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 5%, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 10% per day.
Sports: NFL · Registry version 1 · Low sample
This rule is equivalent to 15 other spellings
[
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "confidence",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
}
]Live vs backtest
Backtest
Reconstructed from prior predictions
- Picks
- 7
- Days active
- 7
- Wins / Losses / Pushes
- 1 / 2 / 0
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- ROI
- -19.4%
- Wilson-LB ROI
- -74.8%
- Units
- -1.35u
- Max drawdown
- +1.35u
- Best 30d
- +0.65u
- Worst 30d
- -1.00u
- Longest win streak
- 1
- Longest loss streak
- 1
- Range
- 2025-09-05 → 2026-01-18
The rule, in JSON
You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.
{
"sort": {
"by": "edge",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"venue": "home",
"edge_min": 0.05,
"confidence_min": 0.65
}
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