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Strategy · nfl-conf70-edge2-favorite-byimplied_prob-top1
In NFL, confidence ≥ 70%, edge ≥ 2%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take the top pick per day.
Sports: NFL · Registry version 1 · Low sample
This rule is equivalent to 3 other spellings
[
{
"sort": {
"by": "implied_prob",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"edge_min": 0.02,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "implied_prob",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"edge_min": 0.02,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
},
{
"sort": {
"by": "implied_prob",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"pct": 0.1,
"mode": "top_pct"
},
"filters": {
"edge_min": 0.02,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
}
]Live vs backtest
Backtest
Reconstructed from prior predictions
- Picks
- 27
- Days active
- 27
- Wins / Losses / Pushes
- 16 / 1 / 0
- Win rate
- 94.1%
- ROI
- 21.5%
- Wilson-LB ROI
- 8.5%
- Units
- +5.82u
- Max drawdown
- +1.00u
- Best 30d
- +2.84u
- Worst 30d
- 0.00u
- Longest win streak
- 4
- Longest loss streak
- 1
- Range
- 2025-09-05 → 2026-01-18
The rule, in JSON
You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.
{
"sort": {
"by": "implied_prob",
"dir": "desc"
},
"scope": {
"market": "moneyline",
"sports": [
"nfl"
]
},
"select": {
"n": 1,
"mode": "top_n"
},
"filters": {
"side": "favorite",
"edge_min": 0.02,
"confidence_min": 0.7
}
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