Strategy · nfl-conf75-edge0-favorite-home-byedge-top5

In NFL, confidence ≥ 75%, edge ≥ 0%, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.

Sports: NFL · Registry version 1 · Low sample

This rule is equivalent to 11 other spellings

[
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "confidence",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "side": "favorite",
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "implied_prob",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "mode": "all_eligible"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  },
  {
    "sort": {
      "by": "edge",
      "dir": "desc"
    },
    "scope": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "sports": [
        "nfl"
      ]
    },
    "select": {
      "n": 5,
      "mode": "top_n"
    },
    "filters": {
      "venue": "home",
      "edge_min": 0,
      "confidence_min": 0.75
    }
  }
]

Live vs backtest

Live

Full live record — includes picks before public anchoring

Not yet started.

Backtest

Reconstructed from prior predictions

Picks: 22
Days active: 14
Wins / Losses / Pushes: 12 / 0 / 0
Win rate: 100.0%
ROI: 17.4%
Wilson-LB ROI: 10.1%
Units: +3.84u
Max drawdown: 0.00u
Best 30d: +1.67u
Worst 30d: 0.00u
Longest win streak: 3
Longest loss streak: 0
Range: 2025-09-05 → 2026-01-18

The rule, in JSON

You can replicate this leaderboard against your own copy of our published predictions. The rule is the only thing that varies; the inputs are public.

{
  "sort": {
    "by": "edge",
    "dir": "desc"
  },
  "scope": {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sports": [
      "nfl"
    ]
  },
  "select": {
    "n": 5,
    "mode": "top_n"
  },
  "filters": {
    "side": "favorite",
    "venue": "home",
    "edge_min": 0,
    "confidence_min": 0.75
  }
}

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